We Need REAL Housing Solutions

The Housing Crisis: Reforming Zoning Laws and Unlocking Vacant Homes for Millennials and Gen Z

So it’s not just inflation — the game is rigged. It hasn’t always been this bad, but it’s been getting worse for decades. Since the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, the dollar has lost over 97% of its purchasing power, wages have stagnated, and the cost of essentials like housing has exploded. The American Dream of homeownership now feels like a distant mirage for Millennials and Gen Z.

As Josh Rincon’s viral post on X highlighted, the hourly wage needed to afford a home has skyrocketed from $3.60 in 1970 to a projected $57.32 in 2025 — a 16-fold increase driven by inflation, stagnant wages, and a housing market squeezed by restrictive policies and supply shortages.

Yet with nearly 15 million vacant homes in the U.S., many ask: why can’t we just use those empty houses? The answer lies in a tangle of outdated zoning laws, speculative holding, and a deep mismatch between where the homes are and where the people need them.

The Zoning Bottleneck: Why It’s Blocking New Homes

Zoning laws — many unchanged since the mid-20th century — are a core culprit in the housing crisis. In many cities, over 75% of residential land is locked into single-family zoning, banning affordable, denser options like duplexes and triplexes. This “zoning tax” inflates home prices by $50,000–$100,000 per unit in high-demand areas. Meanwhile, cumbersome permitting processes and “Not In My Backyard” (NIMBY) resistance slow new construction, leaving the U.S. short by an estimated 4.5–7 million homes.

Solutions for Zoning Reform:

End Single-Family Zoning: Minneapolis (2019) and Oregon (2019) led the charge, legalizing triplexes and fourplexes. Minneapolis saw rent growth slow by 1–2% annually, and California’s SB 9 (2021) added about 50,000 units. Nationwide, this could unlock millions of new homes.
Legalize Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs): Backyard cottages and basement apartments are low-cost and efficient. Arizona’s 2023 ADU law boosted supply by 10% in Phoenix suburbs, and Montana’s reforms are showing promise. States should mandate ADU approvals to bypass local resistance.
Streamline Approvals & Offer Incentives: Florida’s Live Local Act (2023) preempts local zoning for mixed-use projects with 40% affordable units, boosting construction by 15% in Miami. “By-right” approvals for pre-vetted designs cut development time by 6–12 months, while density bonuses encourage affordability.
State and Federal Pressure: Connecticut’s Zoning Restrictiveness Index and Virginia’s funding tie-ins are pushing localities to modernize. Federal HUD grants or tax incentives could accelerate this. Houston’s no-zoning model — building 14x more homes than San Jose — shows what’s possible when red tape is removed.

These reforms face pushback. NIMBYs fear change, and gentrification is a risk. But inclusionary zoning, requiring affordable set-asides, can ensure equity alongside density.

The Vacant Home Paradox: Why Empty Houses Aren’t Enough

With 14.9 million vacant homes — about 10.4% of the U.S. housing stock — it’s easy to think we could just move people in. But only about 1.4 million homes are truly vacant (not for sale, rent, or seasonal), and most are in the wrong places or unfit for living.

Why Vacant Homes Stay Empty:

For Sale or Rent (44%, ~6.5M units): These homes are available — just unaffordable. With a median home price of $412,300 and mortgage rates near 7%, the math doesn’t work for most buyers.
Seasonal or Recreational (21–33%, ~3–5M units): Vacation homes in areas like Florida or Maine sit empty off-season. They don’t solve shortages in cities like Austin or Seattle.
Abandoned or Under Repair (20–33%, ~3–5M units): “Zombie” properties often require costly rehabs — $50,000 or more — and are concentrated in struggling areas like Detroit or Baltimore.
Investor-Held (5–10%, ~1M units): Big investors and speculators hold properties empty for tax or profit motives. In some markets, institutions now own 20% of single-family rentals.

The real issue is a geographic mismatch: high vacancies in declining regions, while growing metros can’t build fast enough. Since 2008, new home construction (1.4M per year) has lagged behind household formation (1.8M per year), deepening the shortage.

Solutions to Activate Vacant Homes:

Tax Speculative Holding: Vancouver’s empty-home tax reduced vacancy by about 20%. Cities like Oakland are testing similar taxes to discourage hoarding.
Fund Rehabs: Federal or state grants to restore abandoned homes — like Baltimore’s pilot program — could bring hundreds of thousands of units back online.
Convert Commercial Spaces: With over 1 billion square feet of vacant office space, conversions could add major urban housing supply, though costs remain high.
Address the Mismatch: Incentives for remote work relocation or building in high-demand areas can align supply with actual need.

A Call to Action: Building a Future for Young Homebuyers

The housing crisis isn’t just about dollars and cents — it’s about opportunity. Millennials and Gen Z, already burdened by student debt and rising costs, deserve systemic change. Zoning reform could unlock millions of new homes, while activating vacant ones could chip away at the shortage.

Both require bold moves: local YIMBY advocacy, state preemption of restrictive zoning, and federal incentives to make housing attainable again. For individuals, joining groups like YIMBY Action or supporting pro-housing candidates is a start. Renters and aspiring buyers can also check local zoning maps, advocate for ADUs, and speak up at city council meetings.

Together, we can dismantle the barriers that keep the American Dream out of reach — and prove that this game doesn’t have to stay rigged forever.

Sources: National Association of Realtors, U.S. Census Bureau, Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, state housing reports (CA, OR, FL, AZ, CT), and posts on X.

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