No Insurance For Thee — it's too risky (We're going to burn it down and flood it out)

Why Your Home Insurance Might Not Renew: The Flood, Fire, and Brimstone Crisis

September 7, 2025

If you’ve opened your mail to find a non-renewal notice from your home insurance provider or struggled to secure coverage, you’re not alone. Across the U.S., insurers are pulling back from high-risk areas, leaving homeowners scrambling. It might feel like they’ve got a crystal ball, predicting the next disaster with uncanny accuracy. But there’s no mysticism at play—just sophisticated risk models, historical data on escalating weather events, and actuarial projections pointing to a future of relentless floods, fires, and brimstone-like catastrophes.

With global insured losses hitting $140 billion in 2024 (the third-highest on record) and 2025’s Los Angeles wildfires piling on $30-40 billion more, insurers are rethinking where they’ll write policies. This isn’t limited to a handful of spots; it’s a nationwide retreat affecting 12 million properties at high risk for flood, wind, hail, or fire. Here’s a deep dive into where this is happening, why, and what you can do about it.

The Insurance Pullback: Where It’s Happening

Insurance companies aren’t fleeing randomly. They’re targeting regions where the risks of floods, fires, and brimstone are skyrocketing, driven by worsening weather patterns and development in vulnerable areas. Premiums have surged nationwide (up 22% on average in 2024), but in high-risk zones, non-renewals, policy exclusions, or outright market exits are the norm. Below are the key areas, from the wildfire-ravaged West to the storm-battered Gulf and beyond—proving this crisis spans far more than just a couple of places.

1. California: Wildfires, Earthquakes, Floods

California is ground zero for insurance pullbacks, driven by wildfires that have torched billions in property. The 2017-2018 fires triggered 235,000 non-renewals (a 31% spike), and 2025’s Los Angeles wildfires added $30-40 billion in claims. Earthquake risks (70% of U.S. seismic exposure) and rising flood threats compound the issue, but only 10% of homeowners carry costly earthquake coverage ($800-$2,500/year). Insurers face soaring reinsurance costs (up 40-70% in 2024) and state regulations that cap rate hikes, making it hard to stay profitable.

• Insurer Actions: Giants like State Farm (California’s largest insurer) non-renewed 72,000 policies in 2024, later reinstating 30,000 but excluding wildfire coverage in many cases. Allstate paused new policies statewide in 2022, and Farmers has limited offerings to low-risk zones. Smaller firms like Kemper have exited entirely. The California FAIR Plan (a state-backed last-resort option) exploded from 127,000 policies in 2018 to over 500,000 in 2025, with $450 billion in exposure—leading to a $1 billion assessment on private insurers, often passed to policyholders.
• Community Impact: High-risk counties like Sonoma, Ventura, San Bernardino, and Los Angeles are turning into “insurance deserts.” Homeowners rely on bare-bones FAIR policies that cover only fire (not theft, liability, or full rebuilding), with premiums hitting $10,000/year for modest homes. Real estate values drop 20-30% for uninsured properties, and low-income rural areas suffer most, as mitigation like fire-resistant roofing costs thousands.

2. Florida: Hurricanes, Floods, Sinkholes

Florida’s “trifecta” of hurricanes (2023’s Idalia caused $2.5 billion in losses), sea-level rise, and sinkholes (20% of U.S. claims) has made it a reinsurance nightmare, with rates up 54% since 2019. Over 80% of the state’s 6.8 million insured homes sit in high-risk zones, and 2024’s storm season added to the tally of 27 billion-dollar weather events nationwide.

• Insurer Actions: At least a dozen companies, including Farmers and AAA, halted new policies or non-renewed thousands in 2023-2025; 20 firms have exited or gone bankrupt since 2021. Policies now often exclude wind/hail, forcing separate (expensive) endorsements. Citizens Property Insurance (Florida’s FAIR equivalent) ballooned to 1.3 million policies (20% of the market) but faces solvency probes under state investigation.
• Community Impact: Coastal spots like the Big Bend, Keys, and Miami-Dade see the worst hits, with 17% non-renewal rates in similar Gulf areas. Mortgages are jeopardized without coverage, and low-income communities face “blue-lining”—echoing historical discrimination—while state plans strain under the load.

3. Texas: Hurricanes, Hail, Tornadoes, and Wildfires

Texas isn’t just a side note; it’s a major hotspot with a mix of Gulf hurricanes (like Harvey in 2017, $125 billion in total damages), massive hailstorms (top U.S. peril, causing $10 billion+ yearly), tornadoes in “Tornado Alley,” and growing wildfires in the Panhandle and Hill Country. Urban sprawl into risky areas has amplified exposure, with reinsurance costs up 50% post-2021’s Uri winter storm. By mid-2025, Texas saw a 25% premium hike statewide, but coastal and central regions face 100%+ increases.

• Insurer Actions: Post-Harvey and Uri, over 15 companies pulled back or exited; State Farm and Allstate non-renewed thousands in Houston and Austin areas in 2024. New policies are scarce in high-hail zones like Dallas-Fort Worth, and windstorm coverage (via the state’s TWIA pool) is overwhelmed, with $2 billion in deficits projected for 2025. Exclusions for named storms are common, pushing homeowners to pricey add-ons.
• Community Impact: Coastal counties like Galveston and inland tornado-prone spots (e.g., Wichita Falls) are hardest hit, with 12% non-renewal rates in 2024. Rural wildfire areas in West Texas mirror California’s woes, and uninsured homes risk foreclosure. Low-income neighborhoods see the sharpest premium jumps, exacerbating inequality.

4. Louisiana and the Gulf Coast: Hurricanes, Flooding, Storm Surge

Similar to Florida and Texas, but with added subsidence and Mississippi River flooding; 2024’s events amplified risks, and private flood coverage is rare (90% relies on the federal NFIP, whose premiums rose 77% under new rating systems).

• Insurer Actions: 20 companies exited post-2021 storms; non-renewals hit 17% in coastal parishes like Cameron and Plaquemines in 2023-2025. Nationwide and others exclude near-coastline properties, and Louisiana’s FAIR Plan has tripled in size to 100,000+ policies.
• Community Impact: “Uninsurable” coastal zones force reliance on underfunded state plans, with premiums up 22% in neighboring Texas. Vulnerable, low-income areas face displacement risks without affordable options.

5. Colorado and the Western States: Wildfires and Drought

The 2021 Marshall Fire ($2 billion+ losses) and ongoing drought have made Colorado a wildfire flashpoint, with models predicting longer seasons. Urban expansion into wildland-urban interfaces (WUIs) adds fuel—46% growth in risky development since 1990.

• Insurer Actions: Companies like Allstate and Liberty Mutual pared back in 2024-2025, non-renewing in high-risk foothills and mountains post-recent blazes. Oregon and Washington see similar trends: In Oregon, post-2020 fires, Farmers and State Farm limited policies in the Cascades; Washington’s FAIR Plan grew 40% amid 2024 wildfires.
• Community Impact: Boulder and Denver suburbs, plus Portland-area WUIs, struggle with 50%+ premium hikes or denials. Home values stagnate, and rural fire-prone towns in Idaho and Montana report rising “insurance gaps.”

6. Midwest and Plains: Tornadoes, Hail, Severe Storms

This isn’t coastal-only; the Midwest’s “Tornado Alley” and hail belts (Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri) rack up billions in claims yearly. 2024’s 1,800+ tornadoes (record pace) and hail events costing $15 billion have insurers on edge, with wind/hail exclusions proliferating.

• Insurer Actions: In Oklahoma, 10+ carriers non-renewed 20% of policies in storm-prone areas after 2023 outbreaks; similar in Kansas, where Farmers exited high-risk ZIP codes. Midwest giants like Progressive limit new business in hail-heavy Chicago suburbs and Iowa farmlands.
• Community Impact: Rural Plains towns and urban edges (e.g., Oklahoma City, Wichita) face 30-50% rate shocks, with 15% non-renewals in vulnerable counties. Flood risks from rivers like the Missouri add layers, as NFIP coverage lags.

7. Southeast Expansion: North Carolina, South Carolina, and Beyond

Hurricane Helene (2024) and rising Atlantic storms have extended the crisis eastward, with flooding and wind damage surging. Sea-level rise threatens 1 million homes in the Carolinas alone.

• Insurer Actions: In North Carolina, post-Helene, Allstate and Erie non-renewed 10,000+ coastal policies in 2025; South Carolina’s market saw 12 exits since 2020. Beachfront zones in Myrtle Beach and Outer Banks are increasingly excluded.
• Community Impact: Barrier islands and low-lying areas see skyrocketing FAIR Plan reliance (up 25% in NC), with premiums doubling. This ripple effect hits vacation homes and retirees hardest.

Broader Trends and the "Crystal Ball" Effect

Even where policies renew, coverage is shrinking: Wind, hail, fire, and floods (the costliest U.S. disaster, never in standard policies) are often carved out, with NFIP handling 90% of floods but facing borrowing limits and hikes. Reinsurers (who back insurers) have tripled capacity but demand risk-based pricing, forcing pullbacks. AI tools like RiskFactor let companies pinpoint property-level dangers, explaining the “crystal ball” feel—it’s data, not prophecy.

The ripple? Uninsured homes could lose $1.47 trillion in value by 2055, hitting low-income and minority communities hardest (only 60% flood coverage in mandate zones). Nationwide, 2024’s $320 billion in weather losses (90% insured) signal more to come.

What You Can Do: Actionable Steps for Homeowners

Don’t wait for brimstone—act now:

• Shop Smart: Use your state’s insurance department site or NAIC.org to compare carriers. In Texas, check TWIA for wind; in Colorado, explore wildfire discounts.
• Mitigate Risks: Install fire-resistant materials (up to 25% premium cuts in CA/CO) or elevate for floods (NFIP savings). Document everything for appeals.
• Explore Alternatives: State FAIR plans are last resorts but growing (e.g., Texas’ pool covers 15% of coastal market). Parametric insurance (payouts on triggers like wind speed) is rising.
• Advocate and Insure: Push for regulatory reforms (e.g., Florida’s rate flexibility bills). If in a high-risk spot, consult an independent agent—disasters don’t pause for renewals.

This flood, fire, and brimstone crisis is reshaping America’s housing landscape, but knowledge is your best shield. Stay informed, mitigate, and shop around—your home’s future depends on it.

Sources: Based on reports from Insurance Information Institute, NAIC, and state regulators as of September 2025.