What Crime — DC is Fine

Understanding Crime Statistics in Washington, D.C.: A Look at 2025 Trends and Controversies

August 26, 2025

Washington, D.C., has been at the center of a heated debate in 2025 regarding crime trends and the accuracy of reported statistics. President Donald Trump’s temporary federal takeover of the Metropolitan Police Department (MPD) in August, citing high crime rates, has sparked discussions about whether crime is truly "out of control" or if official data paints a different picture. Adding complexity, allegations of underreported crime statistics have raised questions about the reliability of the numbers. Here’s a balanced look at the data, the claims, and the ongoing investigations.

Crime Trends in Washington, D.C.: What the Data Shows

Official data from the MPD indicates significant declines in violent crime in recent years. According to the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia, violent crime in 2024 dropped by 35% compared to 2023, marking the lowest level in over 30 years. Specific reductions include:

Homicides: Down 32% from 274 in 2023 to 187 in 2024, with a further 12% decrease in 2025, reaching 99 homicides as of August 25, 2025.
Carjackings: Fell from 959 in 2023 to approximately 500 in 2024, with 188 reported through August 2025, a significant drop from nearly 300 at the same point in 2024.
Robberies: Decreased by 39% in 2024 and an additional 28% in 2025 year-to-date.
Assaults with a Dangerous Weapon: Down 27% in 2024 and 20% in 2025.

These figures, reported by the MPD and corroborated by sources like the Council on Criminal Justice, suggest a consistent downward trend in violent crime since a spike in 2023. The Council’s 2025 Mid-Year Crime Trends report notes that D.C.’s homicide rate fell 19% in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024, slightly outperforming the 17% average decline across 30 large U.S. cities.

However, D.C.’s crime rates remain higher than many other major cities. For example, the 2024 homicide rate of 27.3 per 100,000 residents was among the highest in the U.S., though lower than cities like Memphis or St. Louis. Property crimes, particularly motor vehicle thefts, have seen a 9% increase in 2025, highlighting ongoing challenges in certain areas.

Allegations of Underreported Crime

Despite the reported declines, skepticism about the accuracy of D.C.’s crime statistics has emerged, particularly from the Trump administration and the D.C. Police Union. Key points include:

Whistleblower Claims: A D.C. police sergeant filed a lawsuit alleging that MPD officials systematically downgraded felonies to misdemeanors to make crime rates appear lower. The lawsuit was settled, but details remain limited.
Police Union Statements: Gregg Pemberton, chairman of the D.C. Police Union, claimed in July 2025 that supervisors instructed officers to file reports for lesser offenses, potentially skewing data.
Investigation into MPD Commander: In May 2025, MPD Commander Michael Pulliam was placed on administrative leave amid allegations of altering crime data in his district. The U.S. Attorney’s Office, led by Jeanine Pirro, opened an investigation into whether MPD systematically manipulated statistics, as reported by The Guardian.
Data Discrepancies: Crime data expert Jeff Asher noted differences between MPD’s public data and figures reported to the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program. For 2024, MPD reported a 35% drop in violent crime, while FBI data showed a 9% decline. Asher suggests this may reflect reporting issues rather than intentional misrepresentation but acknowledges the gap raises questions.

Broader Context of Crime Reporting

Underreporting of crime is not unique to D.C. The National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), conducted by the Census Bureau, indicates that many crimes, particularly nonfatal ones, go unreported nationwide. Janet Lauritsen, a criminology professor, notes that there’s no evidence D.C.’s underreporting differs significantly from other jurisdictions. Adam Gelb of the Council on Criminal Justice estimates that 25-30% of crimes may go unreported, but this is consistent with national trends and not necessarily indicative of deliberate manipulation.

The Trump administration has used these allegations to justify its federal intervention, with Trump stating on social media that D.C.’s crime numbers are “fake.” Meanwhile, D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser has defended the city’s progress, emphasizing the 30-year low in violent crime and calling the federal takeover “unsettling.” Posts on X reflect this divide, with some users echoing Trump’s claims of data manipulation and others highlighting the reported declines.

What Does This Mean?

The data clearly shows a decline in violent crime in D.C. since 2023, with significant reductions in homicides, carjackings, and robberies. However, allegations of underreporting, supported by the whistleblower lawsuit, union statements, and the ongoing investigation into MPD practices, suggest potential issues with data accuracy. While discrepancies between MPD and FBI figures exist, experts like Jeff Asher caution that these may stem from methodological differences rather than fraud. The investigation by the U.S. Attorney’s Office may provide further clarity, but no conclusive findings have been released as of August 2025.

For residents and policymakers, the debate underscores the complexity of crime data. While D.C. has made strides in reducing violence, challenges like motor vehicle theft and high-crime neighborhoods like Deanwood persist. Understanding the true scope of crime requires looking at multiple data sources and acknowledging both progress and areas for improvement.

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