Under-counted Homelessness More Than Meets The Eye

If you’ve driven through Dallas lately, you’ve likely noticed tents under overpasses or folks holding signs at intersections. Homelessness is visible here, but how do we actually count it? Every January, volunteers hit the streets for the Point-in-Time (PIT) count, a one-night snapshot of people in shelters or on the streets. In 2024, it tallied 3,718 homeless individuals in Dallas and Collin counties. But here’s the thing: that number feels off. It’s like trying to count stars on a cloudy night—you only see what’s right in front of you. So, how many people in Dallas are really experiencing homelessness, and is there a better way to figure it out?

The Problem with the PIT Count

The PIT count, mandated by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, is the gold standard for tracking homelessness. But it’s got serious blind spots. It only captures people in shelters or visibly unsheltered on a single night, missing those couch-surfing, staying in motels, or avoiding contact. A 2001 study found PIT counts can underestimate homelessness by 2.5 to 10 times. In Dallas, where winters are mild and people may not seek shelters, the gap could be even bigger.

Take Dallas’s population: about 1.3 million. The 2024 PIT count suggests just 0.29% (3,718 people) are homeless. But with 300,000 residents living in poverty and only 17 affordable housing units for every 100 low-income renters, it’s hard to believe the number is that low. Evictions are spiking—Dallas County saw a 10% increase in filings from 2021 to 2023—and each one pushes families closer to the edge. So, what’s the real picture?

Digging Deeper: A More Complete Count

To get a better sense of homelessness, we need to look beyond one chilly night in January. Here are a few smarter approaches Dallas could adopt:

Track Service Users Over Time: The Homeless Management Information System (HMIS) records people using shelters, food banks, or outreach programs throughout the year. In Texas, HMIS tracked 61,365 unique individuals in 2023. Scaling that to Dallas, we might estimate 6,000–9,000 people accessing services annually, or 0.46%–0.69% of the city’s population. Add in those who avoid services, and the number climbs higher.
Tap Into Other Systems: Hospitals, jails, and social services see people experiencing homelessness every day. For example, Dallas’s Metro Dallas Homeless Alliance notes that many unhoused individuals cycle through emergency rooms or jails. By combining these records with HMIS, we could spot “hidden” homelessness—like folks doubling up with family or living in cars.
Use Data to Predict Risk: Dallas has 600,000 residents in housing-distressed households, spending over 30% of their income on rent. With median rent at $950, that’s unaffordable for anyone earning less than $38,000 a year. If just 1–2% of these households lose stable housing annually, that’s 6,000–12,000 more people at risk. Statistical models could use these trends to estimate the true scope.
Listen to the Community: Programs like The Well Community in Dallas work directly with unhoused folks. By involving them in surveys or peer-led counts, we can uncover stories the PIT misses—like families quietly staying with friends to avoid shelters.

Using these methods, a more realistic estimate for Dallas might be 9,000–15,600 people experiencing homelessness at some point in a year—0.7% to 1.2% of the city’s population. That’s a far cry from the PIT’s 0.29%, and it shows how many people are slipping through the cracks.

Beyond Dallas: The DFW Picture

What about the broader Dallas-Fort Worth metro area, home to 8.1 million people? Tarrant County (Fort Worth) reported 2,020 homeless individuals in 2024, and smaller counties like Denton add another 600–1,500. Combining these and adjusting for undercounts, the DFW region might have 20,100–36,000 people experiencing homelessness annually, or 0.25%–0.45% of the population. The lower percentage reflects less intense homelessness in suburban areas, but it’s still a big number.

Who’s Most Affected?

The data reveals stark inequities. Black residents make up 19% of Dallas’s population but 57% of its homeless population, a legacy of systemic barriers like lower homeownership rates (only 25% of Black households in Dallas own homes compared to 45% citywide). Meanwhile, about 30% of Dallas households (150,000) have mortgages, a sign of relative stability. Homelessness hits renters and low-income folks hardest, especially as rents climb and affordable housing vanishes.

Why It Matters

Counting homelessness accurately isn’t just about numbers—it’s about seeing people. An undercount means less funding, fewer resources, and policies that don’t match reality. Dallas is making strides: the All Neighbors Coalition has housed 10,100 people since 2021. But to solve this crisis, we need a clearer picture of who’s out there, from the tents downtown to the families quietly struggling in the shadows.

What Can We Do?

Push for Better Data: Dallas could blend HMIS, hospital, and jail records to track homelessness year-round, not just one night.
Invest in Prevention: With evictions and rent burdens driving homelessness, programs targeting at-risk renters could stop the slide before it starts.
Amplify Voices: Community-led counts, like those involving unhoused residents, can uncover hidden stories and build trust.

Next time you pass a tent or a crowded shelter, remember: the numbers we hear are just the tip of the iceberg. By rethinking how we count homelessness, Dallas can take real steps toward solutions that match the scale of the problem. What do you think—how else can we make sure everyone is seen?

Want to dive deeper? Check out local efforts by the Metro Dallas Homeless Alliance or share your thoughts in the comments!

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